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        夏季达沃斯之问:中国经济“稳定器”潜力何在?

        夏季达沃斯之问:中国经济“稳定器”潜力何在?

        中国新闻网 2018-09-20 16:49
        0

        (经济观察)夏季达沃斯之问:中国经济“稳定器”潜力何在?

        中新社天津9月20日电 (夏宾)今年上半年,最终消费支出对中国经济增长贡献率达78.5%,再次夯实其作为中国经济“稳定器”地位。过去五年,中国对世界经济增长的年平均贡献率超30%,换言之,中国消费力量的强弱将在很大程度上影响全球经济成绩单的好坏。

        在此间举行的2018年夏季达沃斯上,与会嘉宾将目光投向了中国的消费趋势与经济增长,找寻中国消费的潜力在哪。

        9月19日上午,主题为“在第四次工业革命中打造创新型社会”的世界经济论坛第12届新领军者年会(简称夏季达沃斯)在天津?#26041;?#20250;展中心举行开幕式。<a target='_blank' href='http://www.chinanews.com/'>中新社</a>记者 刘震 摄

        9月19日上午,主题为“在第四次工业革命中打造创新型社会”的世界经济论坛第12届新领军者年会(简称夏季达沃斯)在天津?#26041;?#20250;展中心举行开幕式。中新社记者 刘震 摄

        从整体来看,中国消费市场的规模将不断扩大。此前,?#22411;?#23186;预测,2018年中国社会消费品零售总额有超过美国的可能,进而成为全球最大的消费市场。

        中欧国际工商学院副院长丁远指出,未?#35789;?#24180;,按照对中国GDP增长的判断,中国消费市场总量会成为现在美国消费市场总量的约2.5倍,且有数据预测到2030年,亚洲新兴市场将会有30亿的中产阶级人口的消费能力,“可以说未来几年亚洲会成为人类消费市场的中?#27169;?#32780;中国又是这个中心当中的中心”。

        麦肯锡公司大中华区执行合伙人乔(JoeNgai)称,中国目前城市化在60%左右,相比于发达国家?#27492;等?#26377;很大空间,不断推进城市化的过程对消费会是重要推动力,?#39029;?#24066;化地区人口中的中产阶级比例会不断上升,也有利于刺激消费。

        9月18日,主题为“在第四次工业革命中打造创新型社会”的世界经济论坛第12届新领军者年会(夏季达沃斯)在天津?#26041;?#20250;展中心举?#23567;?#22270;为位于?#26041;?#20250;展中心的新领军者村。<a target='_blank' href='http://www.chinanews.com/'>中新社</a>记者 刘震 摄

        9月18日,主题为“在第四次工业革命中打造创新型社会”的世界经济论坛第12届新领军者年会(夏季达沃斯)在天津?#26041;?#20250;展中心举?#23567;?#22270;为位于?#26041;?#20250;展中心的新领军者村。中新社记者 刘震 摄

        从细分来看,中国消费市场的潜力存在于多方面。

        中国社科院副院长蔡昉指出,在中国?#29992;?#28040;费中农村的消费比重在大幅下降,其原因是城镇化进程中的农村人口逐渐减少,但需要注意的是若进城农民工可?#25442;?#26412;公共服务充分覆盖,减少后顾之忧,通过户籍制度改革变成?#23548;?#19978;的“城里人”,其消费模式也会变成“城里人”。

        “我们做了一个推算,现在1.7亿进了城市的农民工,其他的人口特征、收入?#27982;?#26377;变,仅仅因为把他变成市民,得到了城市的户口就可以提高他的消费27%。”蔡昉如是说。

        ?#22799;?#20154;亦是消费市场的潜力所在。蔡昉指出,对于?#22799;?#20154;?#27492;擔?#23613;管其一般性消费水平下降,但他们有特殊的消费需求,市场应?#26032;?#36275;特殊消费需求的供给能力,瞄准?#22799;?#20154;市场,通过细分市场释放消费能力。

        9月18日,世界经济论坛第12届新领军者年会(夏季达沃斯)在天津?#26041;?#20250;展中心举?#23567;?#26412;次论坛的主题为“在第四次工业革命中打造创新型社会”。<a target='_blank' href='http://www.chinanews.com/'>中新社</a>记者 佟郁 摄

        9月18日,世界经济论坛第12届新领军者年会(夏季达沃斯)在天津?#26041;?#20250;展中心举?#23567;?#26412;次论坛的主题为“在第四次工业革命中打造创新型社会”。中新社记者 佟郁 摄

        年轻人则是推动消费升级的主力军。中国银联股份有限公司董事长葛华勇表示,在“80后”“90后”成为消费主体后,消费趋势升?#19969;?#20363;如,去年中国进口的消费品第一次突破1万亿元人民币,?#19994;?#27425;?#32454;擼?#36739;受中产阶级欢迎,包括奶粉、箱包、化妆品等增长幅度都较大。

        再将目光投向中低收入者。蔡昉认为,中国能够通过收入分配制度的改革,让人?#24378;?#34955;里的钱多起来,特别是让中低收入者的钱多起来,不仅要有消费升级,也要有消费深化、广化,让敢于消费、放心大胆消费的人群增加。

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